WASHINGTON — American diplomats are working to secure assurances that yesterday's overwhelming vote in the Turkish parliament to authorize cross-border raids into northern Iraq is purely symbolic and that the Turkish military will not enter the mountainous Kurdish region of Iraq.
At a press conference, President Bush said any Turkish incursion into the Kurdish mountains would be counterproductive. "We are making it very clear to Turkey that we don't think it is in their interests to send troops into Iraq," he said, noting that Turkey already has some troops stationed in Iraq, who were deployed in 1996 after the two main Kurdish parties in northern Iraq signed a cease-fire.
As the president was speaking, the Turkish parliament voted 507 to 19 to authorize the cross-border raids, a response in part to a series of attacks this month by the Kurdistan Workers Party, or PKK, on military bases in eastern Turkey. The Turkish military says the Kurdish regional government in Iraq has allowed the group, which America and Europe have called a terrorist organization, safe harbor.
But the vote also appeared to be a response to last week's vote in the House Foreign Affairs Committee to approve an amendment condemning the slaughter of at least a million Armenians in 1915 in Turkey, an act the resolution calls genocide. Ankara has long considered any such resolution to be the equivalent of historical libel and it has put pressure on the State Department to scuttle the resolution.
Thus far, every living former secretary of state has urged Congress to drop the resolution in the interest of American-Turkish relations. Yesterday, Mr. Bush warned the House against taking up the matter.
"Congress has more important work to do than antagonizing a democratic ally in the Muslim world, especially one that is providing vital support for our military every day," he said.
The campaign against the resolution appears to have had an effect. The speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi of California, told reporters yesterday that it "remains to be seen" whether the legislation, initially scheduled for a floor vote by Thanksgiving, would be brought up on the floor. Ms. Pelosi has been one of the strongest supporters of the resolution and promised earlier in the Congress to allow the bill to come up for a vote.
But the resolution has been losing support in the last two weeks. To date, 11 of the bill's original co-sponsors have withdrawn their support.
The director of the Turkish research program at the Washington Institute for Near East Affairs, Soner Cagaptay, said he thought yesterday's vote in the Turkish parliament was linked to the resolution. "I think it's likely because the mood on Capitol Hill is turning on the Armenian resolution, that it might create some space in Turkey," he said. "They will wait until after a decision on the resolution for any action."
Mr. Cagaptay said he does not think an incursion into Iraq is imminent, but he stipulated that any provocation from the PKK would result in a response. He estimated that between 100,000 and 150,000 Turkish troops are camped on the Iraqi border.
"The border region goes to the peak of the Anti-Taurus range," he said. "Then on the Iraqi side, it gives way to hills. While the border cannot be monitored, the hill region can. Turkey's incursion would take place in that 20-mile belt that cannot be monitored."
Tensions between the Turks and the Kurds have escalated in the last year, with some isolated incidents of Turkish shelling in the border regions in northern Iraq. Qubad Talabani, a Washington-based representative of the Kurdistan regional government and the son of President Talabani of Iraq, said he was worried that any Turkish land incursion would lead Iraq's other neighbors to send military troops into Iraq.
"We are against any kind of escalation. We are calling for calm and wiser heads to prevail," Mr. Talabani said. "The last thing Iraq needs now is for one of its allies to destabilize the only stable part of the country. We must not set the precedent for other forces in the region. If Turkey unilaterally violates Iraq's territorial integrity, this will undoubtedly spell the end of any semblance of stability in the country."
Mr. Talabani also said the U.N. resolution mandating the American and multinational troop presence in Iraq would authorize America to come to Iraq's defense if a foreign army violated its sovereign territory.
A Pentagon spokesman, Geoff Morrell, said he did not think Turkey would send its army into Iraq. "They're clearly angry," he said. "But I also do not think there is a great appetite to take this next step. It would be an enormous step. It would have enormous implications, not just for us, but for the Turks. And I don't think there is any rush to war on the part of the Turks."
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