His motives seem largely political. “They want to prevent the HDP to function and disrupt the structure of the opposition coalition, ”says Galip Dalay, member of the Robert Bosch Academy in Berlin. As a de facto partner in an alliance led by Turkey’s main secular party and nationalists who broke away from a party allied with Mr. Erdogan, the Kurds helped propel the opposition to a string of election victories. last year, notably at Istanbul City Hall. . Mr Erdogan now hopes to cause a split in the alliance by exploiting the reluctance of his main opponents to openly align with the HDP, which many Turks consider to be the PKKpolitical arm of. (Turkey, America and EU Take into account PKK being a terrorist group.) “If the rest of the opposition criticizes the arrests, the government will say it is on the side of the terrorists,” says Vahap Coskun, an academic. “And if they don’t, they risk being separated from the HDP. “
The repression in the country went hand in hand with military interventions abroad. In the mountains of northern Iraq, Turkey has stepped up airstrikes and drone strikes against PKK fortresses. In northern Syria, he launched three separate offensives against the group’s offshoot, destroying his dream of a Kurdish state along the Turkish border. Mr. Erdogan is also involved on other fronts. It has troops operating in Libya and it is also deeply involved in the renewed conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the contested enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh. After nearly two weeks of fighting in and around the enclave, a ceasefire is now in effect, although violations are reported.
Mr. Erdogan thinks he has the PKK and the HDP On the ropes. “We have completely destroyed the morale of the terrorist group,” boasted its interior minister last month. But the government has an intractable problem – the Kurds themselves. In every parliamentary election since 2015, the HDP was able to count on the votes of 5 to 6 million people, the vast majority of whom are Kurds. Even today, with its leaders in prison, the party votes above 10%, enough to make it the third or fourth group in parliament. Mr. Erdogan reigns on the battlefield and in the courts. But he has no answer to the Kurds at the polls. ■



