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What next after the Kurdish militant PKK disbands?


Monday, 12 May, 2025 , 16:17

Istanbul, May 12, 2025 (AFP) — The leadership of the banned Kurdish militant PKK on Monday announced it was disbanding, ending more than four decades of armed struggle against the Turkish state, but what comes next?

- Will the jailed PKK founder be freed? -

The dissolution of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) came after a historic call by its founder Abdullah Ocalan, who has been serving life without parole on Imrali prison island near Istanbul since 1999.

He had been invited to make the call by a hardline right-wing ally of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who hinted at a possible early release.

"It looks unlikely he will be freed," Adnan Celik, an expert at the Paris School for Advanced Studies in the Social Sciences (EHESS), told AFP, saying his life would likely come under threat if he was released.

"It's much more likely his detention conditions will be progressively eased."

A source from Erdogan's ruling AKP told the pro-government Turkiye daily that the 76-year-old's prison conditions would be "eased" but did not mention a possible release to house arrest as mooted by some observers.

- How will the PKK disarm? -

Turkish media reports say the PKK, whose leadership is based in the mountains of northern Iraq, will hand over its weapons at several designated areas in the region in a move supervised by UN observers.

No timetable has yet been determined.

"The PKK's disarmament is a positive development, but the fact that (Colombia's) FARC (rebels), who laid down their arms in 2016, resumed violence less than five years later, carries important lessons for Turkey," said Imdat Oner, an analyst at the Florida-based Gordon Institute.

"Such agreements, which have no solid foundation and are designed to serve fleeting political interests can quickly collapse," he wrote on X.

- What of the PKK militants? -

Ankara, which initiated contact with the PKK in October, has not said whether its fighters will benefit from an amnesty.

Soner Cagaptay of the Washington Institute of Near East Policy said they would likely receive a "generous" offer: "continue fighting and die, or drop your weapons and live, with no charges pressed," while the leadership would likely get an "amnesty-in-exile" deal.

Turkish media said it was unlikely the government would offer a generalised amnesty deal given the likely backlash from the public which has been largely sceptical about its PKK outreach.

It was also still trying to shake off the after-effects of widespread protests triggered by the March arrest and jailing of Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, Erdogan's biggest political opponent.

- What benefit for Turkey's Kurds? -

"The door to a political solution to the Kurdish problem has been thrown wide open," said Aysegul Dogan of the pro-Kurdish opposition DEM party, which played a key role in the process.

"Everything that was seen as an obstacle to the solution of the Kurdish problem now seems to have been eliminated."

Observers are expecting the government to show a new openness to the Kurds who make up about 20 percent of Turkey's 85 million population.

"So far, no symbolic gestures have been made -- not the release of hundreds of political prisoners suffering from serious health issues, nor that of Kurdish political leaders such as Selahattin Demirtas, nor the reinstatement of Kurdish mayors removed from office," Celik said.

"It would be reasonable to expect some steps, even symbolic ones, from the government, such as freeing Demirtas, which would be a strong gesture likely to speed up implementation of this historic decision to dissolve," he said.