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Turkish army operations in Iraq likely to be small-scale: analysts


Thursday, 18 October, 2007 , 11:09

ISTANBUL, Oct 18, 2007 (AFP) — Any Turkish army operations against Kurdish rebels in northern Iraq are likely to be low-level raids yielding more psychological benefits than military ones, analysts here agreed Thursday.

Despite last-minute pleas from Baghdad and Washington, the Turkish parliament on Wednesday gave the government carte blanche for one year to order as many military strikes, whenever and however it wants, against Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) rebels based and armed in northern Iraq.

The government of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has always been wary of military action, but is now "under heavy pressure from public opinion, the media and the military," said Sedat Laciner, president of the International Institute of Strategic Research (USAK).

"It has run out of options," he said, citing the heavy civilian and military losses Turkey suffered from rebel operations in recent weeks, as well as so-far fruitless attempts at cooperation with Baghdad and Washington to curb the PKK.

But military action, if and when it comes, is unlikely to consist of massive troop deployments in Iraq.

"I don't expect a large-scale incursion, but many small-scale ones," Laciner said. "The Turkish army will strike with missiles and air raids and a series of limited operations" against specific targets.

Chief among them is likely to be Mount Qandil, home to the PKK's northern Iraqi headquarters and "a sort of school for terrorism," Laciner said.

"It is almost certain that the army will destroy existing structures there as well as power lines and the transport network," he said.

Wiping the PKK out of existence in northern Irak is an unrealistic goal and the only viable approach is to conduct "small-scale, short-term air force, helicopter and commando raids," said retired general Haldun Solmazturk, a veteran of two previous Turkish incursions into Iraq in 1995 and 1997.

"The area is too large, montainous and difficult ... it is rough terrain even for commando units," he said.

Seeking to wipe out the PKK "would require large numbers of troops staying there for relatively long periods, which I don't think the current political situation would allow," Solmazturk told AFP.

Walter Posch of the European Union Institute for Security Studies agreed:

"Militarily, the massing of tanks and the like is hardly an answer to an evasive enemy," he said. "What would make sense is a long, low-level and persistent fight with special forces."

The downside, Posch said, is that "this would imply no or only limited media coverage and thus would have little domestic value."

He and other analysts agree that with a definitive military victory unlikely, Turkey hopes to win the psychological war -- with the help of the media.

"The first expected gain (of a military operation) is to give satisfaction to public opinion" in Turkey, Laciner commented.

Furthermore, Solmazturk added, "the PKK would be deprived of a sense of security provided by the kind of safe haven (they enjoy) inside Iraq.

"Such an operation would give the signal that the Turkish government and the Turkish army are determined to fight to the end," the retired general said.

The other remaining question is when, once diplomatic channels are exhausted, military action is likely to be launched.

Clashes between the army and the PKK, which have been continuing off and on for 24 years, traditionally slow down during the harsh Kurdish winter and pick up with the thaw.

But, Solmazturk said, "weather conditions are not an obstacle to operations, they just require necessary preparations."

"In wintertime they (the PKK) gather in particular spots, so that would cause some damage, some casualties and the psychological impact would be paramount," he said. "And wintertime would be ideal for airborne operations."