By Owen Matthews and Sami Kohen
Newsweek International
July
31, 2006 issue - Israel launched airstrikes on Lebanon in response to
attacks by Hizbullah earlier this month, and George W. Bush called it
"self-defense." But what to tell the Turks, who over the last week lost
15 sol-diers to terror attacks launched by sepa-ratist Kurds from
neighboring Iraq?
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| Mustafa Ozer / AFP-Getty Images |
Many
Turkish leaders are pressing for cross-border tactical air assaults on
the guerrillas. But Bush, fearing yet another escalation of the Middle
East's violence, urged Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan to hold off.
"The message was, unilateral action isn't going to be helpful," says a
senior U.S. official, describing the 15-minute phone conversation. "The
president asked for patience."
And so Turkish forces
are holding fast--for now--in deference to their half-century alliance
with the United States. But that patience is bound to be challenged,
probably sooner than later. Domestic political pressures are building
to take a leaf from Israel's book and hit back at the guerrillas of the
Kurdistan Work-ers' Party, or PKK. Since the beginning of the year,
attacks on Turkish military garrisons and police stations have
esca-lated across the country's southeast, along with random shootings,
bombings and protests•many of them, authorities suspect, organized in
Iraq. Already the Turkish military has laid detailed plans for possible
helicopter-and-commando assaults, government sources tell NEWSWEEK.
Meanwhile, Ankara's frustration with Washington has grown palpable. For
all the Bush administration's repeated promises to crack down on the
PKK, little if anything has happened. With elections coming next year,
Erdogan could be pardoned for soon concluding that his forbearance
might prove politically dangerous. "Moderate, liberal people in Turkey
are becoming increasingly anti-American," warns Turkey's Foreign
Minister Abdullah Gul. "That isn't good."
Erdogan has built a
career on skillfully riding populist waves, and he's not going to miss
this one. On the one hand, he recognizes the importance of maintaining
good relations with America, if only to foil critics who lambaste him
for being too Islamist. On the other, popular anger at the PKK is
getting explosive. At the funeral of a murdered soldier in Izmir last
week, crowds destroyed wreaths sent by Erdogan's Interior Minister
Abdulkadir Aksu and the city's governor, Oguz Kaan Koksal. Some
mourners chanted slogans accusing the government of cooperating with
the PKK. And when a group of 60 human-rights activists were arrested in
the resort of Kiyikoy on suspicion of being PKK sympathizers last week,
locals attacked the detainees with stones and iron bars.
The
Turkish press has been baying for action, with even the solidly
pro-American Turkish Daily News railing in an editorial that "Turkey is
no banana republic that can leave its security to the mercy of others."
Another editorial posed the question more directly. "Why is it that
Israel has the right to 'self-defense'," the paper asked, "and not
Turkey." The country's usually fractious parliamentary opposition, in a
rare moment of unity, called for active intervention. "Opposition,"
says True Path Party leader Mehmet Agar, "ends at Habur" -- Turkey's
border crossing with Iraq.
Can Washington keep the lid on this
bubbling pot? Not for long, many experts fear. Despite past assurances,
the U.S. military has been unwilling or unable to mount operations
against the guerrillas. With its hands full elsewhere, Washington can
realistically offer little more than in-telligence-sharing, coupled
with possible measures to cut off PKK funding. That's just not enough,
says a senior Erdogan aide: "We want action, not words." Nor can the
Turks expect much from the Iraqis. "We will not tolerate any terrorist
groups on the territory of Iraq," Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshir Zebari
told NEWSWEEK. But even he acknowledges that it may be a while before
the government's security forces get around to dealing with the PKK. By
contrast, Iran last week began shelling PKK positions around Kandil
Mountain on northern Iraq's Iranian and Turkish border. President
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad also called Erdogan to assure him of Teh-ran's
willingess to help quell the guerrillas --unlike the United States.
This
won't automatically lead to another front in the region's wars. For all
the clamor for a military strike, "the sane members of the Turkish
General Staff are aware of the costs of going into northern Iraq," says
independent analyst Grenville Byford. Those include possible all-out
civil disorder across Turkey's Kurdish southeast provinces--which, if
rioting this spring is anything to go by, would lead to a brutal
crackdown, hurting Ankara's hopes for joining the EU. "There is no good
way out of this for the Turkish government," says Byford.
All
this comes at a bad time, clearly. Turkey could play a key diplomatic
role in dealing with the burgeoning crisis in southern Lebanon, NATO
officials say, especially if Turkey were willing to provide troops to
the sort of international force being promoted by France and other
European leaders, including Tony Blair. Not only are Turks Muslims,
which should reduce frictions with the local population, but Ankara
also enjoys good working relations with many of the countries and
forces active behind the scenes. As one of Damascus's few friends in
the region, for example, Ankara would be in a good position to rein in
Syrian ambitions in Leba-non. Erdogan has been trying to play the role
of mediator with Iran, Israel and the Palestinians as well--precisely
why Turkey would "encourage and support" an international peacekeeping
force, says Foreign Ministry spokesman Namik Tan.
Objectively,
Turkey knows that it has no real option but to remain within the
Western Alliance. As for Erdogan himself, who has pushed through so
many dramatic reforms to win membership in the European Union, he, too,
will be reluctant to break with the West, however sorely provoked by
the PKK. Still, if attacks continue to the point where his political
survival is at stake, that sense of restraint could abruptly give way.
Last week rumors swirled in Ankara and Istanbul that he was close to
such a move. For the United States and others, the diplomatic challenge
is to help save Erdogan from having to make such a choice. If they
fail, the next occasion may require more than a phone call from Bush.
© 2006 Newsweek, Inc.
